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Daryl Selby v Cédric Kuchen (Sat 27 Apr 2019)

Match won by Daryl Selby. Result: 11-7,11-4,12-10.

Starting level for Daryl Selby: 37,770, level confidence: 88%. Set manually.
Starting level for Cédric Kuchen: 19,254, level confidence: 60%.
Daryl Selby to win as he is currently playing 96% better than Cédric Kuchen.

Daryl Selby won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 62% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daryl Selby played 62% better than Cédric Kuchen in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Daryl Selby was taking it easy by anything up to 12%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 29,443 and 37,770 without affecting his level.

In this case, Daryl Selby played at level 32,242 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Daryl Selby would normally have been playing at level 33,348 (based on typical behaviour), Cédric Kuchen played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.4%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daryl Selby changes to 0% and Cédric Kuchen changes to +2.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Daryl Selby becomes 0% and for Cédric Kuchen becomes +1.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior European Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daryl Selby: 94%, Cédric Kuchen: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daryl Selby: 85%, Cédric Kuchen: 71%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Daryl Selby: 37,713, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Cédric Kuchen: 19,429, level confidence: 71%.