Declan James v Joel Makin (Sat 27 Apr 2019)
Match won by Joel Makin. Result: 7-11,4-11,6-11.
Starting level for
Declan James:
41,560, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for
Joel Makin:
54,847, level confidence: 69%.
Joel Makin to win as he is currently playing
32% better than Declan James.
Joel Makin won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joel Makin played
94% better than Declan James in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Joel Makin actually played at a level of
66,519 and Declan James at a level of
34,267. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 18% and 18% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joel Makin changes to +15% and Declan James changes to -18%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joel Makin becomes +3.2% and for Declan James becomes -3.9%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior European Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joel Makin: 83%, Declan James: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joel Makin: 68%, Declan James: 62%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Declan James:
40,361, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Joel Makin:
56,339, level confidence: 68%.