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Daryl Selby v Carlos Cornes (Sat 27 Apr 2019)

Match won by Daryl Selby. Result: 11-4,11-7,11-7.

Starting level for Daryl Selby: 37,713, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Starting level for Carlos Cornes: 26,735, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Daryl Selby to win as he is currently playing 41% better than Carlos Cornes.

Daryl Selby won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daryl Selby played 83% better than Carlos Cornes in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Daryl Selby actually played at a level of 42,994 and Carlos Cornes at a level of 23,451. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 12% and 12% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daryl Selby changes to +11.1% and Carlos Cornes changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Daryl Selby becomes +2.6% and for Carlos Cornes becomes -2.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior European Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daryl Selby: 92%, Carlos Cornes: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daryl Selby: 81%, Carlos Cornes: 79%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Daryl Selby: 38,494, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Carlos Cornes: 26,162, level confidence: 79%.