Greg Lobban v Simon Rösner (Sun 28 Apr 2019)
Match won by Simon Rösner. Result: 11-8,9-11,5-11,9-11.
Starting level for
Greg Lobban:
40,239, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Simon Rösner:
55,868, level confidence: 65%.
Simon Rösner to win as he is currently playing
39% better than Greg Lobban.
Simon Rösner won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Simon Rösner played
24% better than Greg Lobban in this match.
As Simon Rösner has played below his allowed range at 50,935, his level reduction is 2.5% before damping. On the assumption that Simon Rösner would normally have been playing at level 53,996 (based on typical behaviour), Greg Lobban played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.2%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.1% and 3.6% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Simon Rösner changes to -2.1% and Greg Lobban changes to +2.9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Simon Rösner becomes -0.8% and for Greg Lobban becomes +1.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior European Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Simon Rösner: 81%, Greg Lobban: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Simon Rösner: 76%, Greg Lobban: 85%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Greg Lobban:
40,753, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Simon Rösner:
55,222, level confidence: 76%.