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Daryl Selby v Rory Stewart (Tue 30 Apr 2019)

Match won by Daryl Selby. Result: 11-8,13-11.

Starting level for Daryl Selby: 37,512, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Rory Stewart: 22,840, level confidence: 62%.
Daryl Selby to win as he is currently playing 64% better than Rory Stewart.

Daryl Selby won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 26% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daryl Selby played 36% better than Rory Stewart in this match.

As Daryl Selby has played below his allowed range at 31,784, his level reduction is 2.5% before damping. On the assumption that Daryl Selby would normally have been playing at level 34,956 (based on typical behaviour), Rory Stewart played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.2%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.9% and 4.8% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 1.4% and 3.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daryl Selby changes to -1.2% and Rory Stewart changes to +3.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Daryl Selby becomes -0.5% and for Rory Stewart becomes +1.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior European Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daryl Selby: 86%, Rory Stewart: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daryl Selby: 78%, Rory Stewart: 72%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Daryl Selby: 37,204, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Rory Stewart: 23,219, level confidence: 72%.