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Tsz Fung Yip v Chang Wook Woo (Wed 01 May 2019)

Match won by Tsz Fung Yip. Result: 11-4,11-4,11-7.

Starting level for Tsz Fung Yip: 38,616, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for Chang Wook Woo: 11,536, level confidence: 25%.
Tsz Fung Yip to win as he is currently playing 235% better than Chang Wook Woo.

Tsz Fung Yip won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tsz Fung Yip played 120% better than Chang Wook Woo in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Tsz Fung Yip was taking it easy by anything up to 28%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 19,957 and 38,616 without affecting his level.

In this case, Tsz Fung Yip played at level 26,543 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Tsz Fung Yip would normally have been playing at level 27,761 (based on typical behaviour), Chang Wook Woo played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.6%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tsz Fung Yip changes to 0% and Chang Wook Woo changes to +2.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tsz Fung Yip becomes 0% and for Chang Wook Woo becomes +1.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Asian Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tsz Fung Yip: 77%, Chang Wook Woo: 50%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tsz Fung Yip: 62%, Chang Wook Woo: 41%.

Final level for Tsz Fung Yip: 38,616, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Chang Wook Woo: 11,674, level confidence: 41%.