SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Leonel Cardenas v Mohamed Nabil (Thu 02 May 2019)

Match won by Leonel Cardenas. Result: 11-5,11-8,11-9.

Starting level for Leonel Cardenas: 27,162, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Mohamed Nabil: 14,527, level confidence: 64%.
Leonel Cardenas to win as he is currently playing 87% better than Mohamed Nabil.

Leonel Cardenas won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Leonel Cardenas played 52% better than Mohamed Nabil in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Leonel Cardenas was taking it easy by anything up to 10%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 21,885 and 27,162 without affecting his level.

In this case, Leonel Cardenas played at level 23,176 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Leonel Cardenas would normally have been playing at level 24,381 (based on typical behaviour), Mohamed Nabil played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.2%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Leonel Cardenas changes to 0% and Mohamed Nabil changes to +3.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Leonel Cardenas becomes 0% and for Mohamed Nabil becomes +1.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Hyder Trophy' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Leonel Cardenas: 81%, Mohamed Nabil: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Leonel Cardenas: 73%, Mohamed Nabil: 72%.

Final level for Leonel Cardenas: 27,162, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Mohamed Nabil: 14,753, level confidence: 72%.