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Alan Clyne v Lucas Serme (Fri 03 May 2019)

Match won by Alan Clyne. Result: 11-6,11-7,11-5.

Starting level for Alan Clyne: 39,046, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Lucas Serme: 36,246, level confidence: 43%.
Alan Clyne to win as he is currently playing 8% better than Lucas Serme.

Alan Clyne won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alan Clyne played 83% better than Lucas Serme in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Alan Clyne actually played at a level of 50,938 and Lucas Serme at a level of 27,784. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 30% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alan Clyne changes to +19% and Lucas Serme changes to -29%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alan Clyne becomes +4% and for Lucas Serme becomes -5.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior European Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Lucas Serme is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alan Clyne: 82%, Lucas Serme: 66%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alan Clyne: 63%, Lucas Serme: 50%.

A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Alan Clyne: 40,379, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Lucas Serme: 34,521, level confidence: 50%.