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Leo Au v Tsz Fung Yip (Sat 04 May 2019)

Match won by Leo Au. Result: 11-3,11-8,11-4.

Starting level for Leo Au: 39,730, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tsz Fung Yip: 40,533, level confidence: 64%.
Tsz Fung Yip to win as he is currently playing 2% better than Leo Au.

Leo Au won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Leo Au played 120% better than Tsz Fung Yip in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Leo Au actually played at a level of 59,522 and Tsz Fung Yip at a level of 27,055. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 50% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Leo Au changes to +36% and Tsz Fung Yip changes to -49%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Leo Au becomes +6.8% and for Tsz Fung Yip becomes -8.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Asian Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Leo Au is limited to +5.3% and Tsz Fung Yip is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Leo Au: 93%, Tsz Fung Yip: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Leo Au: 62%, Tsz Fung Yip: 54%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Leo Au: 41,860, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Tsz Fung Yip: 38,632, level confidence: 54%.