Declan James v Borja Golan (Sat 04 May 2019)
Match won by Borja Golan. Result: 13-11,11-9,7-11,6-11,2-11.
Starting level for
Declan James:
42,962, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Borja Golan:
39,290, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Declan James to win as he is currently playing
9% better than Borja Golan.
Borja Golan won 60% of the games and 58% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 36% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Borja Golan played
16% better than Declan James in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Borja Golan actually played at a level of
44,340 and Declan James at a level of
38,069. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Borja Golan changes to +12% and Declan James changes to -12%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Borja Golan becomes +2.8% and for Declan James becomes -2.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior European Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Borja Golan: 87%, Declan James: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Borja Golan: 77%, Declan James: 77%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Declan James:
41,918, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Borja Golan:
40,376, level confidence: 77%.