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David O'Neill v Stephen Pitts (Tue 07 May 2019)

Match won by David O'Neill. Result: 15-6,15-5,15-8.

Starting level for David O'Neill: 1,492, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Stephen Pitts: 514, level confidence: 65%.
David O'Neill to win as he is currently playing 190% better than Stephen Pitts.

David O'Neill won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 137% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David O'Neill played 137% better than Stephen Pitts in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that David O'Neill was taking it easy by anything up to 23%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 854 and 1,492 without affecting his level.

In this case, David O'Neill played at level 1,217 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Stephen Pitts is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David O'Neill: 83%, Stephen Pitts: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David O'Neill: 75%, Stephen Pitts: 73%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for David O'Neill: 1,490, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Stephen Pitts: 513, level confidence: 73%.