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Chris Hanson v Jesus Camacho (Tue 07 May 2019)

Match won by Chris Hanson. Result: 14-12,11-9,11-2.

Starting level for Chris Hanson: 28,092, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Jesus Camacho: 26,922, level confidence: 40%.
Chris Hanson to win as he is currently playing 4% better than Jesus Camacho.

Chris Hanson won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Hanson played 56% better than Jesus Camacho in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Hanson actually played at a level of 34,351 and Jesus Camacho at a level of 22,017. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 22% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Hanson changes to +12% and Jesus Camacho changes to -22%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Hanson becomes +2.9% and for Jesus Camacho becomes -4.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Montreal Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Hanson: 85%, Jesus Camacho: 63%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Hanson: 70%, Jesus Camacho: 52%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Hanson: 28,864, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Jesus Camacho: 25,882, level confidence: 52%.