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Adrian Waller v Chris Hanson (Wed 08 May 2019)

Match won by Adrian Waller. Result: 11-4,11-5,11-8.

Starting level for Adrian Waller: 45,245, level confidence: 89%. Set manually.
Starting level for Chris Hanson: 28,861, level confidence: 70%.
Adrian Waller to win as he is currently playing 57% better than Chris Hanson.

Adrian Waller won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adrian Waller played 94% better than Chris Hanson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Adrian Waller actually played at a level of 50,347 and Chris Hanson at a level of 25,936. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 11% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.9% and 8.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adrian Waller changes to +7% and Chris Hanson changes to -8.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adrian Waller becomes +1.8% and for Chris Hanson becomes -2.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Montreal Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adrian Waller: 94%, Chris Hanson: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adrian Waller: 85%, Chris Hanson: 75%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Adrian Waller: 45,902, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Chris Hanson: 28,424, level confidence: 75%.