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David Freer v Baillie Watterson (Tue 14 May 2019)

Match won by David Freer. Result: 15-12,15-8,15-6.

Starting level for David Freer: 1,569, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for Baillie Watterson: 1,335, level confidence: 10%.
David Freer to win as he is currently playing 18% better than Baillie Watterson.

David Freer won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 73% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Freer played 73% better than Baillie Watterson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like David Freer actually played at a level of 1,904 and Baillie Watterson at a level of 1,100. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Freer changes to +2.4% and Baillie Watterson changes to -20%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Freer becomes +2% and for Baillie Watterson becomes -9.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 90% for 'Isle of Man BC SRA Cup 2019' so the adjustment for David Freer is +1.8% and for Baillie Watterson is -8.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Freer: 90%, Baillie Watterson: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Freer: 74%, Baillie Watterson: 26%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for David Freer: 1,595, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Baillie Watterson: 1,227, level confidence: 26%.