Steve Baker v Allister Crossley (Wed 15 May 2019)
Match won by Allister Crossley. Result: 15-7,15-8,9-15,10-15,11-15.
Starting level for
Steve Baker:
2,187, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Allister Crossley:
1,790, level confidence: 69%.
Steve Baker to win as he is currently playing
22% better than Allister Crossley.
Allister Crossley won 60% of the games and 50% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 0% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Allister Crossley played
8% better than Steve Baker in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Allister Crossley actually played at a level of
2,051 and Steve Baker at a level of
1,908. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Allister Crossley changes to +13% and Steve Baker changes to -12%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Allister Crossley becomes +6.3% and for Steve Baker becomes -5.7%.
Given Allister Crossley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 28% has been applied to his level change.
Given Steve Baker's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 41% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 40% for 'Club match' so the adjustment for Allister Crossley is +2% and for Steve Baker is -1.6%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Allister Crossley: 83%, Steve Baker: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Allister Crossley: 73%, Steve Baker: 74%.
Final level for Steve Baker:
2,154, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Allister Crossley:
1,825, level confidence: 73%.