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Mark Broadberry v David Wallond (Mon 13 May 2019)

Match won by Mark Broadberry. Result: 15-10,15-9,15-8.

Starting level for Mark Broadberry: 3,283, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for David Wallond: 3,114, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Mark Broadberry to win as he is currently playing 5% better than David Wallond.

Mark Broadberry won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 67% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Broadberry played 67% better than David Wallond in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mark Broadberry actually played at a level of 4,128 and David Wallond at a level of 2,477. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 26% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Broadberry changes to +25% and David Wallond changes to -25%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Broadberry becomes +8.7% and for David Wallond becomes -8.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Surrey Summer League 2019' so the adjustment for Mark Broadberry is +5.6% and for David Wallond is -5.6%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that David Wallond is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Broadberry: 84%, David Wallond: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Broadberry: 67%, David Wallond: 67%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mark Broadberry: 3,463, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for David Wallond: 2,961, level confidence: 67%.