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Ben Peach v Joshua Green (Thu 16 May 2019)

Match won by Ben Peach. Result: 15-8,15-4,9-15,12-15,15-11.

Starting level for Ben Peach: 2,538, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Starting level for Joshua Green: 2,264, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Ben Peach to win as he is currently playing 12% better than Joshua Green.

Ben Peach won 60% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 25% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ben Peach played 14% better than Joshua Green in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ben Peach actually played at a level of 2,555 and Joshua Green at a level of 2,249. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.7% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ben Peach changes to +0.6% and Joshua Green changes to -0.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ben Peach becomes +0.4% and for Joshua Green becomes -0.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 90% for 'Isle of Man BC - SRA Cup 2019' so the adjustment for Ben Peach is +0.4% and for Joshua Green is -0.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ben Peach: 93%, Joshua Green: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ben Peach: 92%, Joshua Green: 89%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ben Peach: 2,544, level confidence: 92%.
Final level for Joshua Green: 2,251, level confidence: 89%.