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James Leith v Douglas Jacobsson (Thu 16 May 2019)

Match won by Douglas Jacobsson. Result: 4-15,5-15,5-15.

Starting level for James Leith: 998, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Douglas Jacobsson: 1,734, level confidence: 88%. Set manually.
Douglas Jacobsson to win as he is currently playing 74% better than James Leith.

Douglas Jacobsson won all of the games and 76% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 221% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Douglas Jacobsson played 221% better than James Leith in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Douglas Jacobsson actually played at a level of 2,358 and James Leith at a level of 734. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 36% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 26% and 26% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Douglas Jacobsson changes to +20% and James Leith changes to -26%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Douglas Jacobsson becomes +8.8% and for James Leith becomes -14%.

Apply match/event weighting of 90% for 'Isle of Man BC - SRA Cup 2019' so the adjustment for Douglas Jacobsson is +7.9% and for James Leith is -13%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that James Leith is limited to -5.5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Douglas Jacobsson: 94%, James Leith: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Douglas Jacobsson: 69%, James Leith: 60%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for James Leith: 944, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Douglas Jacobsson: 1,868, level confidence: 69%.