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Barry Irvine v David Freer (Thu 16 May 2019)

Match won by David Freer. Result: 4-15,11-15,5-15.

Starting level for Barry Irvine: 841, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for David Freer: 1,596, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
David Freer to win as he is currently playing 90% better than Barry Irvine.

David Freer won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 125% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Freer played 125% better than Barry Irvine in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like David Freer actually played at a level of 1,738 and Barry Irvine at a level of 772. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.9% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.4% and 6.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Freer changes to +6.3% and Barry Irvine changes to -6.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Freer becomes +3.8% and for Barry Irvine becomes -4.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 90% for 'Isle of Man BC - SRA Cup 2019' so the adjustment for David Freer is +3.4% and for Barry Irvine is -4.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Freer: 86%, Barry Irvine: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Freer: 79%, Barry Irvine: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Barry Irvine: 806, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for David Freer: 1,648, level confidence: 79%.