SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Oliver Williams v Alan Macnair (Fri 17 May 2019)

Match won by Alan Macnair. Result: 13-15,6-15,11-15.

Starting level for Oliver Williams: 837, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Alan Macnair: 1,241, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Alan Macnair to win as he is currently playing 48% better than Oliver Williams.

Alan Macnair won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alan Macnair played 52% better than Oliver Williams in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Alan Macnair actually played at a level of 1,255 and Oliver Williams at a level of 828. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.1% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.9% and 0.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alan Macnair changes to +0.9% and Oliver Williams changes to -0.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alan Macnair becomes +0.8% and for Oliver Williams becomes -0.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 90% for 'Isle of Man BC - SRA Cup 2019' so the adjustment for Alan Macnair is +0.7% and for Oliver Williams is -0.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alan Macnair: 86%, Oliver Williams: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alan Macnair: 85%, Oliver Williams: 84%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Oliver Williams: 829, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Alan Macnair: 1,248, level confidence: 85%.