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Oliver Wait v Douglas Jacobsson (Fri 17 May 2019)

Match won by Douglas Jacobsson. Result: 9-15,12-15,10-15.

Starting level for Oliver Wait: 1,604, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Douglas Jacobsson: 1,870, level confidence: 69%.
Douglas Jacobsson to win as he is currently playing 17% better than Oliver Wait.

Douglas Jacobsson won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 45% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Douglas Jacobsson played 48% better than Oliver Wait in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Douglas Jacobsson actually played at a level of 2,110 and Oliver Wait at a level of 1,422. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Douglas Jacobsson changes to +12% and Oliver Wait changes to -11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Douglas Jacobsson becomes +5.7% and for Oliver Wait becomes -5.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 90% for 'Isle of Man BC - SRA Cup 2019' so the adjustment for Douglas Jacobsson is +5.1% and for Oliver Wait is -5.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Douglas Jacobsson: 83%, Oliver Wait: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Douglas Jacobsson: 73%, Oliver Wait: 76%.

A final adjustment of +1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Oliver Wait: 1,562, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Douglas Jacobsson: 1,963, level confidence: 73%.