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Magnus Lamprecht v David Freer (Fri 17 May 2019)

Match won by David Freer. Result: 13-15,15-9,13-15,9-15.

Starting level for Magnus Lamprecht: 1,231, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for David Freer: 1,652, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
David Freer to win as he is currently playing 34% better than Magnus Lamprecht.

David Freer won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 8% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Freer played 19% better than Magnus Lamprecht in this match.

As David Freer has played below his allowed range at 1,513, his level reduction is 3% before damping. On the assumption that David Freer would normally have been playing at level 1,606 (based on typical behaviour), Magnus Lamprecht played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.5% and 3.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Freer changes to -2.5% and Magnus Lamprecht changes to +3.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Freer becomes -2.1% and for Magnus Lamprecht becomes +3.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 90% for 'Isle of Man BC - SRA Cup 2019' so the adjustment for David Freer is -1.9% and for Magnus Lamprecht is +2.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Freer: 89%, Magnus Lamprecht: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Freer: 84%, Magnus Lamprecht: 85%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Magnus Lamprecht: 1,264, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for David Freer: 1,619, level confidence: 84%.