Russell Sparshott v David Wallond (Thu 16 May 2019)
Match won by David Wallond. Result: 11-7,4-11,7-11,4-11.
Starting level for
Russell Sparshott:
1,961, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for
David Wallond:
2,944, level confidence: 66%.
David Wallond to win as he is currently playing
50% better than Russell Sparshott.
David Wallond won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 54% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Wallond played
35% better than Russell Sparshott in this match.
In this case, David Wallond played at level 2,718 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that David Wallond would normally have been playing at level 2,801 (based on typical behaviour), Russell Sparshott played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.1%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.5% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Wallond changes to 0% and Russell Sparshott changes to +2.3%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Wallond becomes 0% and for Russell Sparshott becomes +1.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Berkshire Summer League 2019' so the adjustment for David Wallond is 0% and for Russell Sparshott is +1.1%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Wallond: 81%, Russell Sparshott: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Wallond: 77%, Russell Sparshott: 80%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Russell Sparshott:
1,981, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for David Wallond:
2,940, level confidence: 77%.