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Iker Pajares Bernabeu v Omar Mosaad (Mon 13 May 2019)

Match won by Iker Pajares Bernabeu. Result: 8-11,12-10,11-8,4-11,11-7.

Starting level for Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 35,712, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Omar Mosaad: 40,878, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Omar Mosaad to win as he is currently playing 14% better than Iker Pajares Bernabeu.

Iker Pajares Bernabeu won 60% of the games and 49% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Iker Pajares Bernabeu played 7% better than Omar Mosaad in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Iker Pajares Bernabeu actually played at a level of 39,517 and Omar Mosaad at a level of 36,942. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10.7% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Iker Pajares Bernabeu changes to +9.2% and Omar Mosaad changes to -9.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Iker Pajares Bernabeu becomes +2.3% and for Omar Mosaad becomes -2.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Wimbledon Club Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 89%, Omar Mosaad: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 80%, Omar Mosaad: 77%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 36,565, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Omar Mosaad: 39,998, level confidence: 77%.