SquashLevels calculations
Diego Gobbi v Jason Hua (Tue 14 May 2019)
Match won by Diego Gobbi. Result: 11-1,11-3,11-4.
Starting level for
Diego Gobbi:
20,983, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for
Jason Hua:
4,298, level confidence: 44%.
Diego Gobbi to win as he is currently playing
388% better than Jason Hua.
Diego Gobbi won all of the games and 80% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 313% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Diego Gobbi played
313% better than Jason Hua in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Diego Gobbi was taking it easy by anything up to 41%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 7,196 and 20,983 without affecting his level.
In this case, Diego Gobbi played at level 17,729 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Jason Hua is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Diego Gobbi: 83%, Jason Hua: 66%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Diego Gobbi: 77%, Jason Hua: 61%.
Final level for Diego Gobbi:
20,983, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Jason Hua:
4,298, level confidence: 61%.