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Tomo Endo v Diego Gobbi (Wed 15 May 2019)

Match won by Tomo Endo. Result: 11-7,7-11,12-10,13-11.

Starting level for Tomo Endo: 16,447, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Diego Gobbi: 20,952, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Diego Gobbi to win as he is currently playing 27% better than Tomo Endo.

Tomo Endo won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 10% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tomo Endo played 20% better than Diego Gobbi in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tomo Endo actually played at a level of 20,347 and Diego Gobbi at a level of 16,936. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 24% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 21% and 21% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tomo Endo changes to +21% and Diego Gobbi changes to -18%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tomo Endo becomes +5% and for Diego Gobbi becomes -4.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Colon Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tomo Endo: 82%, Diego Gobbi: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tomo Endo: 66%, Diego Gobbi: 71%.

A final adjustment of +1.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tomo Endo: 17,276, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Diego Gobbi: 20,515, level confidence: 71%.