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Drew Henderson v Andrew Lynn (Sat 18 May 2019)

Match won by Andrew Lynn. Result: 1-3.

Starting level for Drew Henderson: 4,915, level confidence: 42%.
Starting level for Andrew Lynn: 7,990, level confidence: 65%.
Andrew Lynn to win as he is currently playing 63% better than Drew Henderson.

Andrew Lynn won 75% of the games. There are no points scores.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.

As Andrew Lynn has played below his allowed range at 6,546, his level reduction is 6.5% before damping. On the assumption that Andrew Lynn would normally have been playing at level 7,465 (based on typical behaviour), Drew Henderson played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 10.2%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.1% and 7.9% respectively.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 6.3%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andrew Lynn changes to -2.6% and Drew Henderson changes to +6.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andrew Lynn becomes -1.4% and for Drew Henderson becomes +2.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Whistler Haakon Classic 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andrew Lynn: 81%, Drew Henderson: 65%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andrew Lynn: 71%, Drew Henderson: 57%.

Final level for Drew Henderson: 5,048, level confidence: 57%.
Final level for Andrew Lynn: 7,883, level confidence: 71%.