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Paul Wallace v Michael Aley (Mon 20 May 2019)

Match won by Paul Wallace. Result: 14-12,11-8,11-9.

Starting level for Paul Wallace: 6,532, level confidence: 49%.
Starting level for Michael Aley: 7,909, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Michael Aley to win as he is currently playing 21% better than Paul Wallace.

Paul Wallace won all of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 24% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Wallace played 34% better than Michael Aley in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Wallace actually played at a level of 8,330 and Michael Aley at a level of 6,202. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 28% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Wallace changes to +25% and Michael Aley changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Wallace becomes +7.1% and for Michael Aley becomes -4.8%.

Given Paul Wallace's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 12% has been applied to his level change.

Given Michael Aley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 21% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Essex Mens Summer League 2019' so the adjustment for Paul Wallace is +4.2% and for Michael Aley is -2.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Wallace: 70%, Michael Aley: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Wallace: 55%, Michael Aley: 66%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Wallace: 6,794, level confidence: 55%.
Final level for Michael Aley: 7,702, level confidence: 66%.