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Emma Bartley v Torrie Malik (Sat 25 May 2019)

Match won by Torrie Malik. Result: 3-11,11-8,4-11,7-11.

Starting level for Emma Bartley: 3,629, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Torrie Malik: 5,901, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Torrie Malik to win as she is currently playing 63% better than Emma Bartley.

Torrie Malik won 75% of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 64% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Torrie Malik played 38% better than Emma Bartley in this match.

As Torrie Malik has played below her allowed range at 5,076, her level reduction is 1.5% before damping. On the assumption that Torrie Malik would normally have been playing at level 5,513 (based on typical behaviour), Emma Bartley played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.1% and 3.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Torrie Malik changes to -1.1% and Emma Bartley changes to +3.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Torrie Malik becomes -0.6% and for Emma Bartley becomes +2.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Ipswich Junior Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Torrie Malik: 85%, Emma Bartley: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Torrie Malik: 78%, Emma Bartley: 81%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Emma Bartley: 3,715, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Torrie Malik: 5,878, level confidence: 78%.