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Gavin Hickling v Torrie Malik (Wed 22 May 2019)

Match won by Torrie Malik. Result: 6-15,11-15,13-15.

Starting level for Gavin Hickling: 2,427, level confidence: 55%.
Starting level for Torrie Malik: 5,937, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Torrie Malik to win as she is currently playing 145% better than Gavin Hickling.

Torrie Malik won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Torrie Malik played 52% better than Gavin Hickling in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Torrie Malik was taking it easy by anything up to 18%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 3,724 and 5,937 without affecting her level.

As Torrie Malik has played below her allowed range at 3,702, her level reduction is 0.6% before damping. On the assumption that Torrie Malik would normally have been playing at level 4,869 (based on typical behaviour), Gavin Hickling played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 15%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.4% and 9.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Torrie Malik changes to 0% and Gavin Hickling changes to +9.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Torrie Malik becomes -0.1% and for Gavin Hickling becomes +4.4%.

Given Torrie Malik's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 7.2% has been applied to her level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Surrey Summer League 2019' so the adjustment for Torrie Malik is 0% and for Gavin Hickling is +2.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Torrie Malik: 93%, Gavin Hickling: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Torrie Malik: 73%, Gavin Hickling: 58%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Gavin Hickling: 2,493, level confidence: 58%.
Final level for Torrie Malik: 5,923, level confidence: 73%.