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Katie Cox v Torrie Malik (Sun 26 May 2019)

Match won by Torrie Malik. Result: 1-11,8-11,5-11.

Starting level for Katie Cox: 3,077, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Torrie Malik: 5,878, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Torrie Malik to win as she is currently playing 91% better than Katie Cox.

Torrie Malik won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 136% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Torrie Malik played 136% better than Katie Cox in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Torrie Malik actually played at a level of 6,529 and Katie Cox at a level of 2,770. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 11.1% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.9% and 7.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Torrie Malik changes to +6.5% and Katie Cox changes to -7.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Torrie Malik becomes +2.7% and for Katie Cox becomes -3.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Ipswich Junior Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Torrie Malik: 88%, Katie Cox: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Torrie Malik: 79%, Katie Cox: 72%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Katie Cox: 2,976, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Torrie Malik: 6,050, level confidence: 79%.