Patrick Fitzpatrick v Thomas Whiteway (Mon 27 May 2019)
Match won by Thomas Whiteway. Result: 11-8,11-7,8-11,8-11,9-11.
Starting level for
Patrick Fitzpatrick:
3,699, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for
Thomas Whiteway:
4,883, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Thomas Whiteway to win as he is currently playing
32% better than Patrick Fitzpatrick.
Thomas Whiteway won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Thomas Whiteway played
8% better than Patrick Fitzpatrick in this match.
As Thomas Whiteway has played below his allowed range at 4,275, his level reduction is 7% before damping. On the assumption that Thomas Whiteway would normally have been playing at level 4,762 (based on typical behaviour), Patrick Fitzpatrick played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.2%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.1% and 7.9% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Thomas Whiteway changes to -5% and Patrick Fitzpatrick changes to +7.9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Thomas Whiteway becomes -2.4% and for Patrick Fitzpatrick becomes +3.4%.
Given Thomas Whiteway's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 114% has been applied to his level change.
Given Patrick Fitzpatrick's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 83% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 40% for 'Club match' so the adjustment for Thomas Whiteway is -0.4% and for Patrick Fitzpatrick is +0.7%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Thomas Whiteway: 84%, Patrick Fitzpatrick: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Thomas Whiteway: 76%, Patrick Fitzpatrick: 70%.
Final level for Patrick Fitzpatrick:
3,727, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Thomas Whiteway:
4,862, level confidence: 76%.