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Patrick Fitzpatrick v Thomas Whiteway (Mon 27 May 2019)

Match won by Thomas Whiteway. Result: 11-8,11-7,8-11,8-11,9-11.

Starting level for Patrick Fitzpatrick: 3,699, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for Thomas Whiteway: 4,883, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Thomas Whiteway to win as he is currently playing 32% better than Patrick Fitzpatrick.

Thomas Whiteway won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Thomas Whiteway played 8% better than Patrick Fitzpatrick in this match.

As Thomas Whiteway has played below his allowed range at 4,275, his level reduction is 7% before damping. On the assumption that Thomas Whiteway would normally have been playing at level 4,762 (based on typical behaviour), Patrick Fitzpatrick played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.2%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.1% and 7.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Thomas Whiteway changes to -5% and Patrick Fitzpatrick changes to +7.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Thomas Whiteway becomes -2.4% and for Patrick Fitzpatrick becomes +3.4%.

Given Thomas Whiteway's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 114% has been applied to his level change.

Given Patrick Fitzpatrick's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 83% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 40% for 'Club match' so the adjustment for Thomas Whiteway is -0.4% and for Patrick Fitzpatrick is +0.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Thomas Whiteway: 84%, Patrick Fitzpatrick: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Thomas Whiteway: 76%, Patrick Fitzpatrick: 70%.

Final level for Patrick Fitzpatrick: 3,727, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Thomas Whiteway: 4,862, level confidence: 76%.