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Borja Golan v Alan Clyne (Tue 21 May 2019)

Match won by Borja Golan. Result: 4-11,11-6,11-6,11-2.

Starting level for Borja Golan: 38,762, level confidence: 51%.
Starting level for Alan Clyne: 40,379, level confidence: 58%.
Alan Clyne to win as he is currently playing 4% better than Borja Golan.

Borja Golan won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Borja Golan played 33% better than Alan Clyne in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Borja Golan actually played at a level of 45,555 and Alan Clyne at a level of 34,358. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Borja Golan changes to +17% and Alan Clyne changes to -15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Borja Golan becomes +3.7% and for Alan Clyne becomes -3.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA British Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Borja Golan: 72%, Alan Clyne: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Borja Golan: 61%, Alan Clyne: 65%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Borja Golan: 40,109, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Alan Clyne: 39,262, level confidence: 65%.