Joshua Masters v Tsz Fung Yip (Tue 21 May 2019)
Match won by Joshua Masters. Result: 11-8,11-9,11-9.
Starting level for
Joshua Masters:
31,579, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for
Tsz Fung Yip:
38,322, level confidence: 50%.
Tsz Fung Yip to win as he is currently playing
21% better than Joshua Masters.
Joshua Masters won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 27% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joshua Masters played
36% better than Tsz Fung Yip in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Joshua Masters actually played at a level of
40,597 and Tsz Fung Yip at a level of
29,809. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 29% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joshua Masters changes to +20% and Tsz Fung Yip changes to -26%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joshua Masters becomes +4.3% and for Tsz Fung Yip becomes -5.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA British Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joshua Masters: 81%, Tsz Fung Yip: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joshua Masters: 63%, Tsz Fung Yip: 55%.
A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Joshua Masters:
32,852, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Tsz Fung Yip:
36,609, level confidence: 55%.