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Fares Dessouky v Mathieu Castagnet (Tue 21 May 2019)

Match won by Fares Dessouky. Result: 11-8,7-11,12-14,11-8,12-10.

Starting level for Fares Dessouky: 54,172, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for Mathieu Castagnet: 40,784, level confidence: 66%.
Fares Dessouky to win as he is currently playing 33% better than Mathieu Castagnet.

Fares Dessouky won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 4% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Fares Dessouky played 8% better than Mathieu Castagnet in this match.

As Fares Dessouky has played below his allowed range at 47,690, his level reduction is 7.8% before damping. On the assumption that Fares Dessouky would normally have been playing at level 52,770 (based on typical behaviour), Mathieu Castagnet played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.2%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.7% and 7.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Fares Dessouky changes to -6.7% and Mathieu Castagnet changes to +6.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Fares Dessouky becomes -1.8% and for Mathieu Castagnet becomes +1.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA British Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Fares Dessouky: 76%, Mathieu Castagnet: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Fares Dessouky: 69%, Mathieu Castagnet: 74%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Fares Dessouky: 53,251, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Mathieu Castagnet: 41,621, level confidence: 74%.