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Diego Gobbi v Jason Hua (Tue 21 May 2019)

Match won by Diego Gobbi. Result: 11-2,11-5,11-5.

Starting level for Diego Gobbi: 20,533, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Jason Hua: 4,297, level confidence: 59%.
Diego Gobbi to win as he is currently playing 378% better than Jason Hua.

Diego Gobbi won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Diego Gobbi played 175% better than Jason Hua in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Diego Gobbi was taking it easy by anything up to 41%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 7,223 and 20,533 without affecting his level.

In this case, Diego Gobbi played at level 11,996 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Diego Gobbi would normally have been playing at level 12,178 (based on typical behaviour), Jason Hua played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Diego Gobbi changes to 0% and Jason Hua changes to +0.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Diego Gobbi becomes 0% and for Jason Hua becomes +0.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Regatas Resistencia Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Diego Gobbi: 83%, Jason Hua: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Diego Gobbi: 63%, Jason Hua: 58%.

Final level for Diego Gobbi: 20,533, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Jason Hua: 4,315, level confidence: 58%.