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Cesar Salazar v Karim Ali Fathi (Wed 22 May 2019)

Match won by Cesar Salazar. Result: 12-10,11-9,7-11,11-9.

Starting level for Cesar Salazar: 39,134, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Karim Ali Fathi: 36,595, level confidence: 64%.
Cesar Salazar to win as he is currently playing 7% better than Karim Ali Fathi.

Cesar Salazar won 75% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 5% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Cesar Salazar played 18% better than Karim Ali Fathi in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Cesar Salazar actually played at a level of 41,185 and Karim Ali Fathi at a level of 34,772. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.2% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Cesar Salazar changes to +4.2% and Karim Ali Fathi changes to -5.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Cesar Salazar becomes +1.4% and for Karim Ali Fathi becomes -1.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA British Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Cesar Salazar: 88%, Karim Ali Fathi: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Cesar Salazar: 84%, Karim Ali Fathi: 76%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Cesar Salazar: 39,642, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Karim Ali Fathi: 36,140, level confidence: 76%.