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Leonel Cardenas v Rodrigo Pezzota (Wed 22 May 2019)

Match won by Leonel Cardenas. Result: 11-8,11-1,11-8.

Starting level for Leonel Cardenas: 26,620, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Rodrigo Pezzota: 12,693, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Leonel Cardenas to win as he is currently playing 110% better than Rodrigo Pezzota.

Leonel Cardenas won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Leonel Cardenas played 94% better than Rodrigo Pezzota in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Leonel Cardenas was taking it easy by anything up to 14%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 19,849 and 26,620 without affecting his level.

In this case, Leonel Cardenas played at level 24,639 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Rodrigo Pezzota is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Leonel Cardenas: 87%, Rodrigo Pezzota: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Leonel Cardenas: 84%, Rodrigo Pezzota: 82%.

Final level for Leonel Cardenas: 26,620, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Rodrigo Pezzota: 12,693, level confidence: 82%.