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Mazen Hesham v Lucas Serme (Thu 23 May 2019)

Match won by Mazen Hesham. Result: 11-4,11-6,4-11,11-7.

Starting level for Mazen Hesham: 41,378, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Lucas Serme: 38,920, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Mazen Hesham to win as he is currently playing 6% better than Lucas Serme.

Mazen Hesham won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mazen Hesham played 27% better than Lucas Serme in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mazen Hesham actually played at a level of 45,288 and Lucas Serme at a level of 35,560. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.4% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mazen Hesham changes to +9.2% and Lucas Serme changes to -8.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mazen Hesham becomes +2.3% and for Lucas Serme becomes -2.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA British Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mazen Hesham: 83%, Lucas Serme: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mazen Hesham: 76%, Lucas Serme: 77%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mazen Hesham: 42,207, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Lucas Serme: 38,181, level confidence: 77%.