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Paul Coll v Mazen Hesham (Fri 24 May 2019)

Match won by Paul Coll. Result: 11-3,5-11,11-6,8-11,11-6.

Starting level for Paul Coll: 67,853, level confidence: 90%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mazen Hesham: 42,207, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Paul Coll to win as he is currently playing 61% better than Mazen Hesham.

Paul Coll won 60% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 24% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Coll played 14% better than Mazen Hesham in this match.

As Paul Coll has played below his allowed range at 53,431, his level reduction is 11% before damping. On the assumption that Paul Coll would normally have been playing at level 63,567 (based on typical behaviour), Mazen Hesham played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 15%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.9% and 12% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Coll changes to -7.4% and Mazen Hesham changes to +12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Coll becomes -1.8% and for Mazen Hesham becomes +2.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA British Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Coll: 95%, Mazen Hesham: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Coll: 80%, Mazen Hesham: 73%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Coll: 66,612, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Mazen Hesham: 43,433, level confidence: 73%.