Mahesh Mangaonkar v Daniel Mekbib (Fri 24 May 2019)
Match won by Mahesh Mangaonkar. Result: 11-4,6-11,11-4,11-8.
Starting level for
Mahesh Mangaonkar:
36,649, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Daniel Mekbib:
30,907, level confidence: 92%. Set manually.
Mahesh Mangaonkar to win as he is currently playing
19% better than Daniel Mekbib.
Mahesh Mangaonkar won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 44% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mahesh Mangaonkar played
31% better than Daniel Mekbib in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mahesh Mangaonkar actually played at a level of
38,582 and Daniel Mekbib at a level of
29,359. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.3% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mahesh Mangaonkar changes to +4.8% and Daniel Mekbib changes to -4.3%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mahesh Mangaonkar becomes +1.5% and for Daniel Mekbib becomes -1.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Pilatus Indoors - PSA Sekisui Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 91%, Daniel Mekbib: 96%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 87%, Daniel Mekbib: 91%.
A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Mahesh Mangaonkar:
37,067, level confidence: 87%.
Final level for Daniel Mekbib:
30,549, level confidence: 91%.