Ashley Sandyford-Sykes v David Norman (Thu 30 May 2019)
Match won by David Norman. Result: 11-7,5-11,6-11,5-11.
Starting level for
Ashley Sandyford-Sykes:
4,820, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for
David Norman:
7,765, level confidence: 59%.
David Norman to win as he is currently playing
61% better than Ashley Sandyford-Sykes.
David Norman won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Norman played
33% better than Ashley Sandyford-Sykes in this match.
As David Norman has played below his allowed range at 6,469, his level reduction is 1.2% before damping. On the assumption that David Norman would normally have been playing at level 7,271 (based on typical behaviour), Ashley Sandyford-Sykes played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.6%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.9% and 5.2% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Norman changes to -0.9% and Ashley Sandyford-Sykes changes to +5.2%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Norman becomes -0.5% and for Ashley Sandyford-Sykes becomes +2.4%.
Given David Norman's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 187% has been applied to his level change.
Given Ashley Sandyford-Sykes's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 113% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 40% for 'Club match' so the adjustment for David Norman is 0% and for Ashley Sandyford-Sykes is +0.5%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Norman: 77%, Ashley Sandyford-Sykes: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Norman: 70%, Ashley Sandyford-Sykes: 70%.
Final level for Ashley Sandyford-Sykes:
4,842, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for David Norman:
7,760, level confidence: 70%.