SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Michael Aley v Tom Langham (Tue 28 May 2019)

Match won by Michael Aley. Result: 11-6,11-9,11-5.

Starting level for Michael Aley: 7,563, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tom Langham: 3,693, level confidence: 42%.
Michael Aley to win as he is currently playing 105% better than Tom Langham.

Michael Aley won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Michael Aley played 65% better than Tom Langham in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Michael Aley was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 5,449 and 7,563 without affecting his level.

In this case, Michael Aley played at level 6,331 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Michael Aley would normally have been playing at level 6,578 (based on typical behaviour), Tom Langham played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Michael Aley changes to 0% and Tom Langham changes to +2.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Michael Aley becomes 0% and for Tom Langham becomes +1.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Essex Mens Summer League 2019' so the adjustment for Michael Aley is 0% and for Tom Langham is +1.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Michael Aley: 86%, Tom Langham: 65%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Michael Aley: 77%, Tom Langham: 58%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Michael Aley: 7,552, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Tom Langham: 3,729, level confidence: 58%.