Alfredo Avila v Robert Downer (Wed 29 May 2019)
Match won by Alfredo Avila. Result: 11-6,11-7,11-4.
Starting level for
Alfredo Avila:
29,332, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for
Robert Downer:
17,214, level confidence: 63%.
Alfredo Avila to win as he is currently playing
70% better than Robert Downer.
Alfredo Avila won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alfredo Avila played
94% better than Robert Downer in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Alfredo Avila actually played at a level of
31,307 and Robert Downer at a level of
16,128. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.7% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.1% and 5.1% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alfredo Avila changes to +4.9% and Robert Downer changes to -5.1%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alfredo Avila becomes +1.6% and for Robert Downer becomes -1.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Internacional Sporta Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alfredo Avila: 81%, Robert Downer: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alfredo Avila: 76%, Robert Downer: 74%.
Final level for Alfredo Avila:
29,794, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Robert Downer:
16,907, level confidence: 74%.