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Diego Gobbi v Hazem Helmy (Wed 29 May 2019)

Match won by Diego Gobbi. Result: 11-4,11-5,11-8.

Starting level for Diego Gobbi: 21,269, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Hazem Helmy: 15,204, level confidence: 31%.
Diego Gobbi to win as he is currently playing 40% better than Hazem Helmy.

Diego Gobbi won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Diego Gobbi played 94% better than Hazem Helmy in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Diego Gobbi actually played at a level of 25,054 and Hazem Helmy at a level of 12,907. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 15% and 15% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Diego Gobbi changes to +6.6% and Hazem Helmy changes to -15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Diego Gobbi becomes +2% and for Hazem Helmy becomes -3.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Paraguay Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Diego Gobbi: 83%, Hazem Helmy: 56%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Diego Gobbi: 71%, Hazem Helmy: 47%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Diego Gobbi: 21,702, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Hazem Helmy: 14,627, level confidence: 47%.