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Leonel Cardenas v Felipe Tovar (Wed 29 May 2019)

Match won by Leonel Cardenas. Result: 11-5,11-6,11-6.

Starting level for Leonel Cardenas: 28,855, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for Felipe Tovar: 9,355, level confidence: 25%.
Leonel Cardenas to win as he is currently playing 208% better than Felipe Tovar.

Leonel Cardenas won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Leonel Cardenas played 94% better than Felipe Tovar in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Leonel Cardenas was taking it easy by anything up to 25%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 16,087 and 28,855 without affecting his level.

In this case, Leonel Cardenas played at level 19,780 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Leonel Cardenas would normally have been playing at level 21,545 (based on typical behaviour), Felipe Tovar played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Leonel Cardenas changes to 0% and Felipe Tovar changes to +5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Leonel Cardenas becomes 0% and for Felipe Tovar becomes +2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Paraguay Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Leonel Cardenas: 90%, Felipe Tovar: 50%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Leonel Cardenas: 71%, Felipe Tovar: 40%.

Final level for Leonel Cardenas: 28,855, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Felipe Tovar: 9,543, level confidence: 40%.