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Chris Hanson v Auguste Dussourd (Thu 30 May 2019)

Match won by Chris Hanson. Result: 13-11,11-3,10-12,11-9.

Starting level for Chris Hanson: 28,581, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Auguste Dussourd: 31,437, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Auguste Dussourd to win as he is currently playing 10% better than Chris Hanson.

Chris Hanson won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Hanson played 26% better than Auguste Dussourd in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Hanson actually played at a level of 33,671 and Auguste Dussourd at a level of 26,685. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Hanson changes to +17% and Auguste Dussourd changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Hanson becomes +3.9% and for Auguste Dussourd becomes -3.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Internacional Sporta Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Hanson: 82%, Auguste Dussourd: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Hanson: 70%, Auguste Dussourd: 76%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Hanson: 29,628, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Auguste Dussourd: 30,544, level confidence: 76%.