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Chris Simpson v Daniel Mekbib (Thu 30 May 2019)

Match won by Chris Simpson. Result: 11-4,6-11,11-8,14-12.

Starting level for Chris Simpson: 37,611, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Daniel Mekbib: 30,970, level confidence: 94%. Set manually.
Chris Simpson to win as he is currently playing 21% better than Daniel Mekbib.

Chris Simpson won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 20% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Simpson played 23% better than Daniel Mekbib in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Simpson actually played at a level of 37,905 and Daniel Mekbib at a level of 30,730. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.8% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Simpson changes to +0.7% and Daniel Mekbib changes to -0.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Simpson becomes +0.3% and for Daniel Mekbib becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Montpellier Metropole Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Simpson: 81%, Daniel Mekbib: 97%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Simpson: 81%, Daniel Mekbib: 96%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Simpson: 37,663, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Daniel Mekbib: 31,013, level confidence: 96%.