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Leonel Cardenas v Diego Gobbi (Thu 30 May 2019)

Match won by Leonel Cardenas. Result: 11-9,2-11,5-11,11-7,11-6.

Starting level for Leonel Cardenas: 28,616, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Diego Gobbi: 21,443, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Leonel Cardenas to win as he is currently playing 33% better than Diego Gobbi.

Leonel Cardenas won 60% of the games and 48% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 10% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Leonel Cardenas played 5% better than Diego Gobbi in this match.

As Leonel Cardenas has played below his allowed range at 24,733, his level reduction is 9.6% before damping. On the assumption that Leonel Cardenas would normally have been playing at level 27,853 (based on typical behaviour), Diego Gobbi played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 11.1%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.3% and 9.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Leonel Cardenas changes to -8.1% and Diego Gobbi changes to +9.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Leonel Cardenas becomes -2.2% and for Diego Gobbi becomes +2.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Paraguay Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Leonel Cardenas: 84%, Diego Gobbi: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Leonel Cardenas: 75%, Diego Gobbi: 74%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Leonel Cardenas: 27,991, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Diego Gobbi: 22,032, level confidence: 74%.