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Robertino Pezzota v Leonel Cardenas (Sat 01 Jun 2019)

Match won by Robertino Pezzota. Result: 8-11,11-2,8-11,11-6,11-9.

Starting level for Robertino Pezzota: 28,950, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Leonel Cardenas: 27,523, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Robertino Pezzota to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Leonel Cardenas.

Robertino Pezzota won 60% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 26% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Robertino Pezzota played 14% better than Leonel Cardenas in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Robertino Pezzota actually played at a level of 30,127 and Leonel Cardenas at a level of 26,448. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.1% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Robertino Pezzota changes to +4% and Leonel Cardenas changes to -3.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Robertino Pezzota becomes +1.4% and for Leonel Cardenas becomes -1.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Paraguay Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Robertino Pezzota: 90%, Leonel Cardenas: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Robertino Pezzota: 87%, Leonel Cardenas: 87%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Robertino Pezzota: 29,333, level confidence: 87%.
Final level for Leonel Cardenas: 27,210, level confidence: 87%.